BEHIND THE PAPER WITH ERIC GRANOF
When the data can’t speak for itself…the activists speak for it
Is it just me or does it seem like every other day now there is an article touting the success of bail reform? In the past few of weeks, I have counted at least a half dozen articles claiming that eliminating cash bail not only works but it just might be the best thing mankind has ever seen… in fact, based on these articles, I think that bail reform might actually be able to solve global warming and even create peace in the middle east. Okay, that might be an overstatement, but definitely solve global warming.
From Illinois to New Mexico to Texas to New Jersey, the bail reform advocates have been burning the midnight oil pumping out media news alerts, groundbreaking studies, and expert opinions about how well the criminal justice system works without the use of cash bail. It has been so compelling that even I have begun to question the legitimacy of financially secured release. No, not really, but damn, they are trying hard. All kidding aside, we are in the midst of one of the largest anti bail propaganda campaigns I have seen in over a decade. Here are just a few of the tall tale headlines being published around the country in the past three weeks…
- New Jersey’s cash bail reform reduced incarceration without increasing gun violence, study says – https://phys.org/news/2024-05-jersey-cash-bail-reform-incarceration.html
- Editorial: California blew it on bail reform. Now Illinois is showing it works – https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2024-05-19/illinois-bail-reform-works
- End of cash bail in Illinois showing early signs of success in reaching ‘better and fairer system’ – https://chicago.suntimes.com/bail-reform/2024/05/08/bail-reform-illinois-success
- Residents across Illinois respond months after eliminating cash bail – https://www.wqad.com/video/news/state/526-37485d12-f0cd-49be-9fe7-51d663f7ea0f
- The Price of Freedom: America’s Unjust Cash Bail System – https://brownpoliticalreview.org/2024/05/the-price-of-freedom/
- LA TIMES: Thanks to Bail Industry, California Behind in Bail Reform as Illinois Setting Example on Eliminating Money Bail – https://www.davisvanguard.org/2024/05/la-times-thanks-to-bail-industry-california-behind-in-bail-reform-as-illinois-setting-example-on-eliminating-money-bail/
Now, what baffles me about these articles, beyond their supposed “studies” and “research” (I will get to that), is that these articles are being written while we are in the middle of arguably one of the worst crime waves we have seen in modern times. For purposes of this article, I Googled “retail theft” under the “News” search for the past week and 23 pages of stories about retail theft came up. What is interesting is that if you Google “crime” in the same “News” section for the past week, you get lots of articles talking about crime rates being down. At the same time, you also get lots of articles about cities and jurisdictions meeting to discuss how to battle crime increases. Wait, that doesn’t make sense, does it? If crime is down, then why are city officials across the country meeting to discuss crime? Hmmmm… Something is starting to smell a little fishy to me. If you talk to people in your community, especially law enforcement, and they tell you that crime is definitely up, but the people pushing for soft on crime policies are telling you that crime is down. Who do you believe?
It is common knowledge amongst many in criminal justice experts that national crime stats provided by the FBI are not as accurate as one might hope…seriously, just Google it. First, the data reporting for these stats is voluntary. That means, many jurisdictions don’t report data, thus underreporting the real crime stats.
According to the Marshall Project, a progressive criminal justice reporting outlet (in other words, no friend of bail), only 24% of New York jurisdictions reported data in 2022. In an average year, only around 75-80% of jurisdictions report any crime data at all. Hardly comprehensive. Additionally, this data does not include the multitude of cases where crimes go unreported.
Based on conversations that I have had with several criminal justice insiders and reports from retailers; this number could be as high as 75-80%. Couple that with the facts we have on jurisdictions like Harris County, Texas where bail reform has led to an average FTA rate of over 80%, it is really hard to believe that crime is down, and we are safer because of the so called success of “bail reform” in these various states.
The problem is that the bail reform debate has never been about facts or data. Because if it was, you would never ever eliminate financially secured release from any criminal justice system. It just wouldn’t make sense. It is about dismantling our current system. The federal government used to conduct studies annually examining the effectiveness of various forms of pretrial release, and every year release on a FREE bond (own recognizance) was the most ineffective form of release. Meanwhile, release on a financially secured surety bond was the most effective form of release. It was effective for both getting defendants to court and keeping them from committing additional crimes…also known as keeping us safe. But now magically, out of nowhere, the proponents of bail reform have produced voluminous studies that show releasing people for FREE is the best way to get people to show up for court and the best way to keep us safe. But what about all the previous government data that says otherwise? What about all the statistics that say FREE release is dangerous and irresponsible. Apparently, those facts aren’t facts anymore. I guess if facts don’t align with the narrative, they aren’t facts anymore. It just makes no sense.
Don’t get me wrong, they do their best to talk about data and research that supports the use of FREE release. But to be honest, their data doesn’t really stand up to the definition of data in my book. For example, in the article that just recently came out on New Jersey’s bail reform success, they claim they have data that proves that if you release a lot of people from jail for FREE that the result will be…your jail will have less people in it. Seriously! This is their data point. Let people out of jail and then talk about how few people are in jail. Combine that with the ambiguous and inaccurate FBI crime data, you can now claim that releasing accused criminals from jail with no financial security not only reduces our jail populations but actually makes defendants show up for court more often and keeps are communities safer. It really is a convoluted chain of logic and once again, it goes against all common sense.
If we are truly going to have a system that works, we need to have objective data that is both accurate and informative. We can no longer rely on studies that are paid for by activist groups or in the case of bail reform conducted by the same people who are trying to eliminate financially secured release. Additionally, besides data, we need common sense. We need to stop forcing ineffective strategies down the throats of communities and forcing them to empty their jails in the name of public safety. Yes, there are several different forms of pretrial release. Yes, some are more effective than others. And yes, there are cases where some people can be released on their own recognizance. We just need everyone to be honest with their data and their conclusions so that we can all live in a community that balances safety and fairness for everyone.
Eric Granof is the Vice President of Corporate Communications for AIA Surety.