Understanding Bail Reform Research and Propaganda (Extra Credit):

SJ Quinney College of Law, University of Utah

This next study examines the outcome of the Bail Reform Act of 2017 passing in Illinois. This piece of legislation eliminated the use of any sort of financially secured pretrial release from the state of Illinois. In other words, the only options available to anyone who is arrested are now 1. free taxpayer funded release or 2. no release (detention). Neither of which are good nor effective options.

Does Bail Reform Increase Crime? An Empirical Assessment of the Public Safety Implications of Bail Reform in Cook County, Illinois

Paul G. Cassell & Richard Fowles, University of Utah
Februrary 2020

Background

In 2016 a class action lawsuit was filed in Illinois challenging the Cook County bail system. The case was eventually dismissed on the merits by the courts, but the activists continued to spread their false narrative and pressure legislators. Ultimately, their pressure tactics paid off, and the Illinois legislature passed the Bail Reform Act of 2017 which eliminated the use of cash bail in the release of pretrial defendants.

Additionally, prior to the passing of this new policy, the Chief Judge issued an order to reduce reliance on money bail in Cook County and increase cashless bail releases.

Eighteen months after the order was issued, a study was released by Loyola University of Chicago that claimed that pretrial releases increased 9%, from 72% to 81%, and that the increase was accompanied by “considerable stability” in the community safety rate. The report went on to state that,

“It should be noted that the increase in pretrial release has not led to an increase in crime and that changes have not led to an increase in violent crime in Chicago.”

In their assessment, the Utah researchers are quick to point out the many deficiencies in the Bail Reform in Cook County study. Here are just a few…

Seasonality – At no time does the bail reform research recognize or call out the impact of seasonality in their research. Annual crime numbers/stats in Chicago follow a pretty distinguishable pattern of seasonality. The Bail Reform Study failed to consider that impact in their findings. In fact, it looks like they purposely left it out as it skewed the results in favor of bail reform proponents by counting the heaviest crime months in the before sample to the lightest crime months in the after This resulted in a much larger difference between pre-policy and post-policy results.
Other Crime Fighting Measures – The authors of the bail reform research completely ignore and disregard any other crime prevention measures that were being implemented during the same time period. This also skews the results significantly in favor of bail reform as it unfairly and inaccurately considers itself as the only measure being implemented to reduce crime.
High Crime Leading up to Study – The existing high crime rates were used without any consideration of whether they might skew the difference in crime numbers before and after. And they most definitely did, representing much larger crime reductions than what was really happening.
No Differentiating Between Pretrial Crime and General Crime – There was no separation of pretrial crimes and crimes by people not on pretrial release. This leads to inflated pre-policy implementation numbers and reduced post policy numbers.

Based on these findings, one must question the accuracy and legitimacy of the results being promoted by the Bail Reform study around crime and violent crime. Here are the findings from the review of the research…

The number of crimes and the number of violent crimes committed by individuals on pretrial release increased substantially
Correct estimates show that the number of crimes increased more than the study stated…the real increase was about 45%
Defendants released charged with a new violent crime increased 33%
Percentage of aggravated domestic violence prosecutions that prosecutors dropped increased 14% (from 56% to 70%)

As one can see from the bullet points above, contrary to what Illinois legislators and proponents of bail reform have promoted to the world, bail reform in Illinois is not what it seems to be. It has failed the citizens of Illinois substantially and needs to be changed before more communities are damaged by senseless and avoidable crime.

Lastly, the most obvious shortcoming and dishonest representation by bail reform supporters in Illinois is the manipulation of the numbers and the promotion of a “stable crime rate.” You can’t say that while pretrial releases increased and the crime “rate” stayed the same, we had fewer crimes committed. It is a complete contradiction. Releasing more people with the same crime rate, can only result in more crime than before. So, to say that communities are safer because the crime rate stayed the same, while you are releasing more and more dangerous people into our communities is just plain wrong.

In conclusion, the authors of this report do a fantastic job in showing how the information and statistics are being manipulated and used to promote and sell soft-on-crime policies throughout the state. We must continue to call out these fake and fact-less claims and continue to read through and assess these studies as they come out.

Understanding Bail Reform Research and Propaganda Series

The Brennan Center

The Brennan Center for Justice’s “Bail Reform and Public Safety: Evidence from 33 Cities.”

This study was released last August and has been one of the studies that has been getting the most attention.

The Bail Project

Tulsa, Oklahoma Study

The next bail reform research study we are reviewing is currently circulating on social media and other online media sources. This study is based in Tulsa, Oklahoma by The Bail Project

Harvard Kennedy School Report

Harvard Kennedy School – December 2021

The next study we are going to review is from Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. The study was released in December 2021 and, much like the previous two studies we have reviewed, is focused on trying to disprove the concept that bail reform policies have increased crime in our communities.

Harry Frank Guggenheim

Is Bail Reform Causing an Increase in Crime – January 2023

Our last study in our Bail Research series is from the Harry Frank Guggenheim organization. As you will see, the pattern stays the same with this study. The same findings that bail reform has not increased crime, the same citations, the same sources, and the same self-cited limitations and deficiencies.